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NFL Predictions and Picks - NFL Week 8


Best NFL Bets for Today and this Weekend with our NFL betting systems. We tend to lean towards a home team that is getting less than three points. In many cases when two teams are even, Las Vegas will lay the field goal spread on the home team.

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When they set the line less than that there is value to be had, especially if it is a team that plays well in front of their home fans. Keep an eye out for the "short home favorite" in the NFL when you're looking for a best bet.

We all know the normal 3-point line on a home team, but we don't all realize the value on the short chalk. Get 60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here. Easily the most popular type of betting for NFL football is spread betting or more commonly known as betting against the spread. Bettors can then either choose for the favored team to win by more than the number of points set, or bet on the underdogs to lose by less than the number of points they are underdogs by or win the game straight up.

For example, the spread could be set on the favored team at points. This would mean in order for a bet on the favored team on the spread to win they would need to win by more than points 7 or more in order to win the bet. It also means that a bet on the underdog team would win if the underdogs lost by less than points 6 or less or won the game outright. Home-field advantage is worth far below the widely-believed three points on average and varies from team to team. The National Football League, or the NFL for short, has always been one of the most popular sports to bet on.

Both professional gamblers and those who wager for fun have spent years trying to perfect the process of NFL betting. In the past, betting on the NFL was simply the case of picking one team to beat another team by a certain amount of points.

The home team gets three points automatically, and this can really shake things up. The three-point rule is particularly significant on close games, although it can be helpful on every line. If a home team is listed as -3, it actually means that they are considered an even match with their rivals. Nine point favorites at home are actually closer to six point favorites. This rule is the key to determining a good bet from a bad one. A point spread is the amount of points a team is favored to win by, indicated by a minus - sign.

For example, if the Cleveland Cavaliers are favored to win against the Golden State Warriors Betting on the Warriors would require they win or lose by LESS than 3 points. By teasing across three and seven, the bet is effectively covering more than one-third and four of the five most common margins of victory. Ferguson provided one decade of research in his book. One of the most inefficient pricing situations in NFL markets are road favourites. The market support between the good and the bad in the NFL is very wide.

Singling out spots where the total is less than seven touchdowns improves the overall win rate of all three teaser categories to, well above the 73,7 combined break even percentage needed. Third, enter the probability based on the teams put into the teaser. Home favourites, home underdogs 77 and road underdogs. If you have a combination of both, take the mean percentage. Favorites are displayed with a three-digit number and a minus sign preceding it.

This number quantifies how much needs to be wagered on that team to win The minus sign is indicative of the fact that when placing money on a favorite, the bettor must wager an amount greater than the amount he or she would potentially win. Alternatively, your payout if you take the Raiders to lose by less than 10 points may be slightly worse at must bet to win. Oddsmakers set point spreads so wagers come in on both teams as evenly as possible. Having already cited NFL and MLB examples, let’s incorporate basketball into the discussion.

An NBA teaser on a two-team parlay that combines the above would be the following.

Free online sports betting picks

In every NFL games, bookmakers suggest the margin of victory between the team considered the favorite and the team considered the underdog. This is known as the line’ and the minimum margin of victory for the favorite is called the point spread’[1].

To beat the point spread by the required number of points, you cover the spread’. The odd-makers set several points that a particular team is favored by in the game in NFL spread betting. For a wager on the favorite team, the favored team must win the game by more points than the spread amount to gain the payout.

It is known as spread covering.

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For an underdog wager, the team should win the game or lose fewer points than spread, known as spread beating. The NFL spread betting point spreads is also known as betting sides’ since you are picking one side to win the game acknowledges that not all teams are created equal. If they were, we wouldn’t need NFL point spreads at all teams would be so evenly matched that every game was a toss-up or a pick em in football parlance.

Simply picking the winner would be enough of a challenge. But when you have a league with strong teams, weak teams and mediocre teams, you need to balance the books a bit. The first-place Patriots may be point favorites against the last-place Bills.

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NFL Superbowl Betting Line History and past matchups provided by VegasInsider, along with more football information for your sports gaming and betting needs. The Super Bowl overunder’ wager has often been called the total in the sports betting industry.

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An opening line is set based on the expected combined points scored from both teams in the game.

Bettors can wager on the outcome and if it will be either higher or lower or put simply, over or under. The overunder’ has gone in the first 54 Super Bowl matchups. No total was posted on Super Bowl I between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs. As 3-point home underdogs, the Redskins are indeed a risky play, with around 40 win odds. However, nearly 90 of the public is on the Packers in this game, a popularity rate that is more typical for 6- or 7-point favorites.

It’s certainly worth watching the news on QB Aaron Rodgers’ health as your pick deadline approaches or just watch the betting line, which should reflect any relevant public information. Nearly 95 of pick’em players have the Chiefs in this one, which means KC is only slightly less popular of a pick than Minnesota, which is a point favorite. Furthermore, fading the team whose QB just tossed six touchdowns is exactly what being contrarian is all about. Get all the best betting information on the NFL here.

Obviously the longer the odds the less favoured that team is to win. You can expect to see odds ranging from around AUD up to AUD10 for Head to Head bets. This is a fun bet where the online bookie will pinpoint several point marks like first to five points, 10 points, 15 points and 20 points.

Handicap betting is designed to create a more even head-to-head style bet with the favourite for the game being deducted points and the underdog being added points. If you think the favourite can still win despite the bookies point disadvantage, then bet on them. If you think the underdog can win with the extra points allocated by the bookie then bet on them.

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When the Minnesota Vikings closed as 16-point favorites over Washington last Thursday, it was the eighth time this season that one NFL team was favored by more than two touchdowns over another in the Vegas line, according to einnovativejunction.com’s data. It’s also helped that, early on at least, the big favorites were covering those margins. Of the first six games with the line exceeding two TDs this season, the favorite covered five times.

But in the most recent two including Minnesota, which was 7 yards away from going up 17 on Washington before being stopped on fourth down with 32 seconds left it didn’t. And bookmakers might be starting to sense that they’ve pushed the lines as far as they’ll go anyway. The point spread is essentially a handicap towards the underdog.

The wager becomes "Will the favorite win by more than the point spread?" The point spread can be moved to any level to create an equal number of participants on each side of the wager. This allows a bookmaker to act as a market maker by accepting wagers on both sides of the spread.

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In return for the additional points, the payout if the gambler wins is less than even money, or the gambler must wager on more than one event and both events must win. In this way it is very similar to a parlay.

At some establishments, the "reverse teaser" also exists, which alters the spread against the gambler, who gets paid at more than evens if the bet wins. Welcome to December, when betting on NFL action won't likely be any easier than it was in September, October and November The Chiefs are laying more points in Oakland than any other road favorite in the last five years.

And while it's possible Kansas City takes advantage of extra rest and pounds its struggling division rival on the road, this line feels like an overreaction to recent performances from both teams.

The Bucs have actually given up just 16 points per game in their last three home outings, while the once-blazing Panthers offense has cooled off, with just points per game since Week Carolina also hasn't been as crisp on the road, where it has yet to score 25 points in five games this season.

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The National Football League NFL remains the only sports league to maintain public opposition to sports betting, however critics have noted that with the move of the Oakland Raiders relocation to Las Vegas in, the NFL has positioned itself for legalization, while simultaneously contradicting its long-held position that sports betting in NFL markets would lead to potential match-fixing.[26] Commissioner. Bet on Sports and this Football Season, College football, NBA season and the College basketball with the Leading Online Sportsbook that Accepts Bitcoins.

Make Sportsbook your home for online sports betting, NFL Football betting, NBA Basketball betting and claim your massive sign-up bonus. Preview enabled - disable preview. You can now access your Superbook account at Sportsbook.

All your account login details remain unchanged. The Browns, who are the home team, are given points because they’re the underdog. If you wager on the Browns and they win outright or lose by less than eight points, you win.

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With the point spread, bookies attempt to even out the odds in terms of who can win.

This way, they also attempt to spread the sports betting between both teams. Of the three different types of bets, the traditional moneyline wager may be the most straightforward. The NFL turnover prop is a good example of a bet that offers a very large payout. Unlike many of the other play propositions that are listed anywhere from around + to +, this one often comes in around + If you bet on the next play being a turnover, you’d win 1. Betting the over after both teams went under the previous week.

A majority of spread tickets see live data here are on the Atlanta Falcons as 3-point favorites against the Saints on Sunday. This could be the worst time to jump off the New Orleans bandwagon. Since, home teams are covering the spread less than 50 of the time, and teams such as the Chiefs that start the season with consecutive road games have been dreadful in their home openers Betting against teams in Week 3 home openers after starting the season with back-to-back road games has gone ATS.

San Francisco at Kansas City Chiefs 1 p.m. New York Giants at Houston Texans 1 p.m.

How to calculate over under in basketball

Syndicate Betting" is an act, prohibited by, where Account Holders act together to place a series of bets on the same event or competition. Where there is evidence of Account Holders acting together in this manner reserves the right to make the relevant bets void andor withhold payment of returns pending the outcome of subsequent investigations. A bet is not valid until it is validated and shows in the Account Holder’s bet history.

Example an offer where the betting line is points and the match ends with the result will be declared void. "OddEven" is where it is possible to bet on the partial or definite amount of a predefined occurrence e.g. Goals, points, corners, rebounds, penalty minutes, etc."Odd" is 1,3,5 etc. Detailed betting tips made by our expert team.

Before we tell you the three essential tips required to make your football predictions successful, you should know that the first step will be to estimate the likelihood of your intended bet being a successful one. This is quite simple to do simply by comparing the odds being offered for your intended selection by bookmakers. This indicates the probability of your selection being a winner or not.

Let's assume that during the week-end you want to bet on the PSG and Marseille match, for which PSG are favourites. In this case, the most reliable prediction will be a PSG win as they are a stro. In the NFL, teams can elect whether to go for a kicked extra point or go for a 2-point conversion.

The NFL has a near automatic play with its extra-point kick. The XFL has created excitement by replacing a kick with a play from scrimmage. To provide even more excitement, we have added the opportunity for a 3-point play, which means that an point deficit is still a two-possession game.

Fans have told the XFL that the 3-point play creates more strategy and innovation for the coaches.

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So that’s what not to do, but how do you make money from the NFL. As you’d expect with so much experience under their belt our panel have a lot of advice here, not least Jesse May. But first we’ll give the floor to Aidan, Neil, Brad and Nick with some great tips that will definitely boost your bankroll over the course of the season.

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Nick Goff Weather is vital when you’re betting on total points, though its wind rather than rain or temperature you need to take most notice of.

Wind makes passing the ball so much harder and therefore sends points totals lower, whereas snow actually slows down defensive players as much as offensive ones and sometimes markets overreact. If your favorite style of play includes backing stronger teams to win, usually at home, you should definitely take a closer look at European handicaps.

You can earn a hefty profit, if you find matches where the home team is expected to win by more than one goal. The odds difference could be huge, as odds on a favorite, could be replaced by odds for the same team winning by two goals or more. This can definitely make a difference on your bankroll. The disadvantages of this style of play are pretty much the same with Asian Handicap. In most cases, you are placing a bet relying onl. Betting the over after both teams went under the previous week.

Koerner’s Week 3 Fantasy Football Tiers for Every Position Read now. Since, home teams are covering the spread less than 50 of the time, and teams such as the Chiefs that start the season with consecutive road games have been dreadful in their home openers Betting against teams in Week 3 home openers after starting the season with back-to-back road games has gone ATS.

San Francisco at Kansas City Chiefs 1 p.m. Offense has been a problem for both teams. The Texans are averaging points one season after topping 30 points per game with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Unfamiliar with common betting terms?

The staff of the ESPN Betting section puts together a glossary of terms every bettor should know. She can then bet the opposite team at and hope the favorite wins by three points. She would then win both sides of the bet. Money line noun, money-line modifier A bet in which your team only needs to win.

The point spread is replaced by odds. Mush A bettor or gambler who is considered to be bad luck. You can either bet that the team will lose by less than the predicted amount ATS, or get better than even-money odds that it will win the game outright. For example, if a team is a underdog, you can bet that the team will win.

If it wins, you win plus receive your original wager back.

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Check out real-time football odds and lines of your favorite team. Yahoo Sportsbook is a partnership between Yahoo Sports and BetMGM.

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If you are in a US state where sports betting is legal, and you are 21+, you will be able to click through. Football, basketball, volleyball, boxing betting more.

If a match is interrupted for more than 24 hours, all bets are refundable, except for the ones, the outcome of which was clearly defined by the time the match was stopped. If a match was postponed for more than 24 hours, all bets are refundable. The following items are suggested for betting on American football. After splitting our best bets last weekend, we're back for Week 3. There are several intriguing lines on the board, but this is the first time this season that two of our contributors have chosen the same best bet.

We are using current odds as of p.m. On Thursday from DraftKings sportsbook. This week, I actually have numbers on my side. A recent study of over 7, NFL games found that, out of the 15 most common point spreads, the two biggest winners for bettors are -6 and +, with a combined winning percentage over 54.

The odds are even better when the home team is favored, with -6 teams and + teams covering at a 55 clip. But how could a half-point difference stand between the best number for favorites and the best number for underdogs.

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Compare and find the best odds for every single Football game on the betting board. That is followed by 17 weeks of regular season action plus three weeks of exciting NFL playoffs and is capped off by the season-ending Super Bowl. Team and player props, including the NFL MVP odds, are mixed in during the year. What are the types of NFL vegas odds? Just like Las Vegas NFL odds, money lines are available throughout the NFL season at top online sportsbooks.

A 5050 proposition, straight prices do have any point spread odds attached to them meaning bettors simply need to properly pick the. You've got a little bit of holiday shopping left to do, and you could use a boost to get you through to But be warned after a sloppy Week 14 in which we went against the spread, we're down to on the season.

Here are your Week 15 lines, picks and overunders. Lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of 12 Pick listed first, with home team in all caps.

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My initial instinct was to trust L.A.'s defense to keep this one within two touchdowns despite the firing of coach Jeff. Point spread betting is the most popular form of sports betting. The vast majority of sports wagers use a point spread thanks to the popularity of football and basketball.

Even though this type of betting is so popular, it may take awhile to understand. The point spread is sometimes known as an equalizer for sportsbook operators. All teams aren’t created equally, so sportsbooks can create a point spread for a game so that each team playing has an almost even chance of winning the game. In a way, the point spread will even the field for both teams.

The point spread gives a reason for bettors to. List your favorite NFL team and if it's the same as mine, first one to share my team gets the invite. If you list more than one team, it's a DQ. Stick around this thread for a few minutes so you can claim the invite. It expires in less than 12 hours. I'll post on the thread when there's a winner. Vgopir, Hanchar and FluxHorizon like this.

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How to make NFL teaser bets on point spreads and overunder totals. Easy guide to NFL and NBA teaser odds with tips and strategies to win at sports betting. Subtracted from the favorite the favorite has to win by up to seven points less than the original spread.

For example, if a team is a -8 favorite and you have them in a 7-point teaser, they now only need to win by more than 1 to cover the spread on your teaser bet. Added to the underdog the underdog can lose by even more than the original spread. For example, if the original spread has the underdog at +, having them in a 7-point teaser means the new spread is + and they can now lose by up to eleven points.

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There are now 31 teams in the league and choosing a favorite as a new fan can be a difficult task, especially if you don't live in a hockey market. Obviously, if you live in New York, chances are you're going to support the Rangers, Islanders, New Jersey Devils, or even Buffalo Sabres, but what about the average fan in Idaho or North Dakota? Or what about Canadian fans in the Atlantic provinces?

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The bets on the winner of the match, in which there is an option "Draw", are offered only in regular time, not taking into account the overtimes. Except for cases mentioned in point on the General Terms and Conditions, if the match is interrupted before the end of regulated time and not resumed within 24 hours, for all bets on this match which the outcome is not defined by the time of the stoppage, a return takes place.

If a match is interrupted less than 5 minutes before the end, all bets on this match remain valid. Here you predict whether the number of points scored by this Team will be more or less than the specified parameter. If the total number of points scored is equal to total of the rate, a return takes place. In which half more points will be scored.

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Home Football Betting Strategy Tips for Betting Football Totals. Tips for Betting Football Totals. Although this makes it less likely that the favorite will cover, it rarely stops the public backing them anyway. The bookmakers still take plenty of money on the favorite, but they’ve reduced their risk exposure and captured more value along the way.

The weight of money from the betting public is VERY relevant when it comes to football totals. The main point to take away from all this is that public opinion matters when betting football totals. It’s something that you really should be taking into account when trying to determine where the value lies. But it’s not the ONLY factor you should be taking into account.

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Result home team win, draw, away team win, whenever there were more than 3 odds available. For that result in some games only a subset of bookmakers offered odds the number of odds we. Employed for analysis varied from a minimum of 3 to a maximum of 32. The probability of obtaining a return greater than or equal to ours with. A random strategy that bets on the maximum odds across 31, games is less than 1 in a million.

Data in this panel comes from a 6-month database of football games September - March.

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Bookies do two things when arranging bets to make money. First, they try to make even odds so that there are equal numbers of people on both sides of the bet. Second, they make it so the odds don't quite even out and there will be money leftover for the bookie. For example, say a bookie is taking bets on a football game between the Texans and Cowboys.

If too many people are betting for the Cowboys, the bookie will adjust the point spread to encourage more people to vote for the Texans. They keep doing this until people are betting on both sides evenly. They also make it so that you have t.

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Prop bets are a smaller market of larger sports, such as the NFL or NBA. Small market sports themselves are a whole different ball game. In these sports, the main betting markets, like sides and totals, still have relatively low betting limits compared to more prominent sports, such as football and basketball.

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Arbitrage Betting 2 Three-outcome Betting. Posted on January 20, by admin 6 Comments. In my first arbitrage post I laid the groundwork for arbitrage betting with two possible outcomes win and lose. Because the sum is greater than 1, if you placed equitable bets i.e.

Providing the same profit on all three outcomes, you would be guaranteed a loss due to this margin. If you can find differing sets of odds for the same event, you may be able to come up with a combination of win, draw and loss bets that guarantees a profit, regardless of the event outcome. Bt wen you multiply with the original odd you get less than the sum you staked.

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Every week of the NFL postseason we're writing up our favorite bets against the spread and player propositions. This weekend, we're backing the Chiefs, and the Saints to win at home and set up a meeting between the two teams in Super Bowl LIII. We're also betting Patrick Mahomes has a big day on the field, while scoring in both games stays relatively low.

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In this example, the Atlanta Falcons are the favorite, so they must win by more than three points for your bet to win. As you can see from the circled numbers, the Cardinals are the + underdog team, and they must either win the game or not lose by more than three points for your bet to win. The same basic principles of point spread betting are the same in the NBA as they are in the NFL.

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An NFL teaser bet is a series of connected bets that must all win for the bet to pay out much like a parlay. But unlike parlays, you get the bonus of shifting the lines 6, or 7 points in a direction that lowers risk. When your teaser includes a point spread, you can decrease the spread for the favorite or increase the spread for the underdog. When your teaser includes a total, you can increase the under or decrease the over. Like a parlay, winning the teaser bet is dependent on all of the wagers winning and despite the lower risk level, teasers still hold the promise of a big payday at t.

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Expert football overunder predictions free betting tips for today and the weekend. For info about all the other football bets and categories predictions available here please see the free predictions football betting tips page. Open an account with bet today and bet on a huge range of markets with the world’s favourite online sports betting company.

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When betting against the point spread, bettors are asked to lay to odds, which means that they risk 11 to win This is how the bookies and sportsbooks make their money. If I bet 11 on the Celtics and you bet 11 on the Knicks, the bookie collects 22 between us, but only returns 21 to the winner.

But because some teams are given a better than percent chance of winning, money line wagers are made using odds, so that if you bet on the team expected to win you will be asked to risk considerably more than you stand to win. The money line odds on a game will look something like.

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How many NFL teams do you believe are 88 percent to win each of their home games? If you’re not used to thinking in percentages, let’s do it with point spreads. In standard point spread to money-line conversions, a three-point favorite is about 60 to win the game, a six-point favorite is about 70, an 8- or nine-point favorite is about 80, and an 11 - point favorite is about 88.

Whenever you hear somebody say they believe an NFL team is going to go at home, ask them if they think that team will be about a point favorite in every home game? They’ll probably say No, that’s crazy.

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Are the Texans a safe bet laying less than a field goal at home against the Bills? Find out which two games offer great teaser value. With weather likely a factor in the northeast this weekend, is the under the right play in both New England and Philadelphia? Joining us again to give his favorite bets for Week 15 is Andrew Caley, a Senior Publishing Editor at einnovativejunction.com.